Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
07 0x074b…db44 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$323 (-9%) realized −$323 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%82W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$160
14 days−$160
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$317
world 1% +$36
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.3% -26.1% 57% 57% -53.7%
≤30d 12 -18.5% -26.3% 58% 58% -53.3%
≤90d 36 +8.1% -2.2% 69% 69% -46.7%
all 127 +2.8% -7.0% 65% 65% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 65% -16.9%
10% -15.9% 58% -24.9%
15% -24.0% 43% -32.1%
20% -31.5% 28% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$26 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$323
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses82 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage161d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$23 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $1 $0 +11%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1 $0 +36%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $1 +$1 +134%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 $0 +46%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $1 +$1 +67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 21 $1 $0 +42%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +73%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $2 +$1 +67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $1 $0 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $3 +$3 +94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $4 +$2 +47%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $1 $0 +25%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $1 $0 +37%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $2 +$1 +29%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $1 $0 +30%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $1 $0 +41%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $1 $0 +45%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $71 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $54 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $71 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 18d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 18d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 41d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 42d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 43d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 61d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 61d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 61d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 61d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 64d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 74d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 74d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 74d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 74d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 83¢ $18 78d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.48 · official $70.48 (match) · 223 history records