Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x074a…f8a3 other 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$652 (-14%) realized −$647 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate42%61W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 39% −$168
other 30% −$74
politics 20% −$439
world 5% +$10
crypto 2% −$6
culture 2% +$4
tech 2% +$6
economics 0% −$16
sports 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +127.1% +105.5% 44% 44% +16.2%
≤30d 25 +127.1% +105.5% 44% 44% +16.2%
≤90d 25 +127.1% +105.5% 44% 44% +16.2%
all 145 +8.9% -1.5% 42% 26% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 26% -22.8%
10% -10.9% 21% -30.2%
15% -19.5% 21% -36.9%
20% -27.4% 15% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$647
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses61 / 84
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)145 / 154
History coverage624d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +874%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1331%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1521%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +156%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
Moonbirds FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 27 $32 −$32 -100%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jan 27 $50 $0 +1%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 21 $312 −$90 -29%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on September Sep 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on September Sep 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on Se Sep 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on September Sep 21 $32 +$31 +96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Se Sep 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Se Sep 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on September Sep 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Se Sep 17 $30 +$13 +43%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on September Sep 17 $30 +$14 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on September Sep 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on Sept Sep 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on Se Sep 16 $20 +$9 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on September Sep 16 $20 +$24 +120%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on Se Sep 15 $25 +$15 +62%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on September Sep 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on September Sep 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Se Sep 14 $28 +$22 +80%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on September Sep 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on Se Sep 13 $22 +$25 +114%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on September Sep 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 13h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 35h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.60 · official $114.52 (match) · 256 history records