Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0749…5b21 sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 717d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate68%36W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$59
other 16% +$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -37.4% -43.4% 60% 2% -9.2%
≤30d 42 -37.4% -43.4% 60% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 43 -35.1% -41.3% 60% 5% -8.9%
all 53 -11.5% -19.9% 68% 21% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 21% -6.1%
10% -27.6% 19% -15.1%
15% -34.6% 19% -23.3%
20% -41.0% 15% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

717d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses36 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage717d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet Jun 22 $214 +$21 +10%
Basilashvili vs. Ymer: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $57 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Set 2 Winner: Cadenasso vs Cina Jun 22 $48 +$2 +4%
Set 2 Winner: Napolitano vs Harris Jun 22 $49 +$2 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Napolitano vs Harris Jun 22 $354 +$20 +6%
Set 2 Winner: Monday vs Schoolkate Jun 22 $119 +$7 +6%
Set 2 Winner: Brancaccio vs Gea Jun 22 $71 +$5 +6%
Set 2 Winner: Kraus vs Kalinskaya Jun 22 $24 +$1 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Skatov vs Barrena Jun 22 $97 +$3 +4%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? Jun 22 $75 $0 +0%
Gaston vs. Midon: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $48 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $38 +$2 +4%
Chris Wood: 2+ assists Jun 22 $39 +$1 +3%
Víctor Muñoz: 2+ goals Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Set Handicap: Dietrich (-1.5) vs Kopp (+1.5) Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Dellavedova vs. Roh: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Ceddanne Rafaela: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
John Yeboah: 3+ goals Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Exact Score: UD Almería 1 - 3 Málaga CF? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +6%
Alexander Isak: 3+ goals Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Gustaf Nilsson: 2+ goals Jun 20 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the DOJ charge Boeing? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
US inflation >0.0% from May to June 2024? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump + Biden 2nd debate happen as scheduled? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Rangers Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Chiefs vs. Titans Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Utah vs. Sharks Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Thunder vs. Knicks Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Flyers vs. Capitals Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Suns vs. Raptors Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Senators vs. Rangers Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Wizards vs. Kings Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Panthers vs. Penguins Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +42%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 03 $10 +$6 +60%
Nuggets vs. Bucks Feb 01 $6 +$11 +194%
Heat vs. Pacers Jan 16 $2 +$5 +257%
Canadiens vs. Stars Jan 10 $6 +$9 +150%
Lightning vs. Ducks Jan 03 $10 +$7 +67%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 30 $10 +$5 +52%
Pistons vs. Trail Blazers Dec 27 $8 +$4 +45%
Knicks vs. Raptors Dec 15 $8 +$5 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Basilashvili vs. Ymer: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 99¢ $57 2h
Set 2 Winner: Monday vs Schoolkate BUY Schoolkate 96¢ $24 3h
Set 2 Winner: Monday vs Schoolkate BUY Schoolkate 94¢ $24 3h
Set 2 Winner: Monday vs Schoolkate BUY Schoolkate 94¢ $24 3h
Set 2 Winner: Monday vs Schoolkate BUY Schoolkate 94¢ $24 3h
Set 2 Winner: Monday vs Schoolkate BUY Schoolkate 94¢ $24 3h
Set 2 Winner: Brancaccio vs Gea BUY Gea 97¢ $25 3h
Set 2 Winner: Brancaccio vs Gea BUY Gea 91¢ $23 3h
Set 2 Winner: Brancaccio vs Gea BUY Gea 94¢ $23 3h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 97¢ $10 4h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 88¢ $22 4h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 93¢ $23 4h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 94¢ $24 4h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 93¢ $23 4h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 80¢ $20 4h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 88¢ $22 4h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 90¢ $23 4h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 93¢ $23 4h
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet BUY Jacquet 95¢ $24 4h
Set 2 Winner: Kraus vs Kalinskaya BUY Kalinskaya 96¢ $24 4h
Set 1 Winner: Skatov vs Barrena BUY Skatov 99¢ $25 4h
Set 1 Winner: Skatov vs Barrena BUY Skatov 96¢ $24 4h
Set 1 Winner: Skatov vs Barrena BUY Skatov 95¢ $24 4h
Set 1 Winner: Skatov vs Barrena BUY Skatov 96¢ $24 4h
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 100¢ $50 5h
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 99¢ $25 5h
Gaston vs. Midon: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 5h
Gaston vs. Midon: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 96¢ $14 5h
Gaston vs. Midon: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 96¢ $24 5h
Set 2 Winner: Cadenasso vs Cina BUY Cina 96¢ $24 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.32 · official $508.32 (match) · 140 history records