Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0748…92a1 crypto 461 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1017 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,102 (+38%) realized +$10,105 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate56%256W / 204L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1016.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$308
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1017 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 460 +4.6% -5.3% 56% 35% -8.5%
≤30d 460 +4.6% -5.3% 56% 35% -8.5%
≤90d 460 +4.6% -5.3% 56% 35% -8.5%
all 460 +4.6% -5.3% 56% 35% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1016.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 35% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 24% -17.2%
15% -22.7% 16% -25.2%
20% -30.2% 12% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$10,105
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses256 / 204
Open positions1
Markets (closed)460 / 461
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1016.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 66¢ 76¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 39¢ 24¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $46 +$16 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $66 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $88 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $54 −$16 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $164 +$17 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $191 −$13 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $54 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $114 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $105 −$15 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $146 −$24 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $133 +$24 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $46 −$32 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $86 +$25 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $73 −$10 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $54 −$9 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $147 −$24 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $78 −$12 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $265 −$13 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $184 +$21 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $56 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $33 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $87 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $84 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $189 −$15 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $136 −$14 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$9 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $247 +$103 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $62 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $58 −$16 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $38 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$13 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $117 −$13 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $39 −$31 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $33 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $83 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$21 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $33 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $16 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $9 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.41 · official $15.58 · 3500 history records