Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

07 0x0747…f226 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$154 (+11%) realized +$156 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate50%8W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$82per market

Trades / day11.4pace

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-6.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+3.6%	-6.2%	50%	44%	+1.9%
≤30d	16	+3.6%	-6.2%	50%	44%	+1.9%
≤90d	16	+3.6%	-6.2%	50%	44%	+1.9%
all	16	+3.6%	-6.2%	50%	44%	+1.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.2%	44%	+1.9%
10%	-15.2%	44%	-7.8%
15%	-23.4%	44%	-16.7%
20%	-30.9%	38%	-24.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late -7% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$63 vs −$46 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.35 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$210

Realized+$156

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses8 / 8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage3d

Avg bet$82

Trades / day11.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$212	$210	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 17	$127	−$5	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 17	$231	+$144	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 17	$104	−$100	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 17	$105	−$102	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$33	+126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$43	+163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 17	$105	−$2	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 17	$29	−$29	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Jun 17	$105	+$186	+177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 17	$130	−$100	-77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$23	+88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$25	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$48	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-95%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?	Jun 14	$30	−$30	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$123	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$101	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$26	38m
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$215	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$375	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$231	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$59	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$69	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$152	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$290	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$105	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$48	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$104	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$48	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$26	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$2	12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$149	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$27	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$2	12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$2	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.10 · official $210.14 (match) · 36 history records