Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0743…5743 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-3%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%26W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$1
crypto 28% $0
other 13% −$9
politics 8% −$15
sports 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 17 +0.3% -9.3% 94% 0% -9.3%
all 35 -6.4% -15.3% 74% 0% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 0% -12.5%
10% -23.4% 0% -20.9%
15% -30.8% 0% -28.5%
20% -37.6% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses26 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage139d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $121 $121 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 9? May 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $96 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 8? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 7? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 3? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 1? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 26? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 25? Mar 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on March 24? Mar 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 20? Mar 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 19? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 10? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 8? Mar 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 7? Mar 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $12 −$4 -33%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 04 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 03 $7 −$4 -50%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 02 $29 −$7 -25%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $16 −$4 -25%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $20 −$4 -20%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $7 −$4 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $121 50m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $129 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $130 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $128 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $142 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $158 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $159 19d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $28 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $22 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $44 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $14 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 71d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $13 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $12 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $11 82d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $11 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $15 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $10 85d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $14 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.07 · official $121.07 (match) · 113 history records