Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x0741…2951
other · 58 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$274 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$270 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$196
Realized−$270
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses13 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage229d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 2 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ 94¢ $160 $182 +$22 (+14%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 25¢ 8¢ $40 $14 −$26 (-65%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final? No 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-22? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final? May 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$20 +195%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $10 +$41 +403%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $30 +$75 +249%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 15 $10 +$28 +276%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Apr 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-15? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24? Apr 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2PM ET Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria Presiden Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President Apr 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-13? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Apr 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Apr 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $30 +$40 +134%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $10 +$30 +300%
Will Player 195 win Beast Games: Season 2? Feb 25 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Biden" during the State of the Union address? Feb 25 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 13 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 08 $20 −$13 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 29 $10 +$18 +182%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% −$85
politics 21% −$5
crypto 12% −$97
sports 6% −$48
world 2% −$24
economics 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $161 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 23h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 14d
Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final? BUY No 9¢ $10 36d
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 38d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 38d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 39d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 41d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 79¢ $30 41d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 41d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? SELL Yes 98¢ $52 43d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 43d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 44d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 51d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 53d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 55d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 59d
Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 62d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 64d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 66d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 90d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 90d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 90d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $40 91d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 91d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 108d
Will Player 195 win Beast Games: Season 2? BUY No 98¢ $10 109d
Will Trump say "Biden" during the State of the Union address? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 42 -63.7% -67.2% 10% 10% -68.6%
all 56 -34.6% -40.9% 23% 20% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 20% -35.7%
10% -46.5% 20% -41.8%
15% -51.7% 20% -47.4%
20% -56.4% 18% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.03 · official $196.03 (match) · 108 history records