Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0740…b7bf weather 733 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$783 (+0%) realized +$780 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%727W / 7L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day73.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,070now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$897
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -3.7% -12.9% 96% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 631 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 734 -0.5% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.3%
all 734 -0.5% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$427 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$2,070
Realized+$780
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses727 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)734 / 733
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$248
Trades / day73.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 734 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $528 $528 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $496 $497 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $352 $353 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $139 $139 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 15? Jun 19 $355 −$355 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 15? Jun 19 $206 −$471 -229%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5? Jun 19 $327 −$327 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1? Jun 19 $282 −$282 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ap Jun 19 $511 −$511 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 6? Jun 19 $783 −$783 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $600 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $264 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $264 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $383 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $654 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $263 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $263 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $527 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 18 $236 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 18 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $263 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $263 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $171 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 17? Jun 17 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $427 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $263 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $657 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $409 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $657 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $427 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $263 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $344 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $475 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $438 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 82°F or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $196 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $106 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 58m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $330 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $330 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $330 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $137 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $264 16h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $270 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,069.98 · official $2,069.78 (match) · 3500 history records