Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x073e…453f weather 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$320 (-9%) realized −$320 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate49%74W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$1
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 35% −$94
other 22% −$117
world 20% −$85
crypto 13% −$29
culture 4% +$4
tech 3% −$9
finance 2% −$2
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -6.5% -15.4% 33% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 41 -4.4% -13.5% 54% 15% -13.0%
≤90d 119 -36.2% -42.3% 38% 13% -25.1%
all 151 -19.0% -26.7% 49% 20% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 20% -18.0%
10% -33.7% 13% -25.9%
15% -40.1% 11% -33.0%
20% -46.0% 11% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses74 / 77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage111d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $60 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$3 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $24 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 06 $21 +$29 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 06 $19 +$40 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $14 −$12 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 03 $13 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $12 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 +14%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 28 $2 $0 -3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 28? May 28 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 28 $26 −$26 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma May 26 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 26? May 26 $2 +$1 +26%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? May 25 $41 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May May 19 $12 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May May 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma May 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 09 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May May 09 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 8? May 09 $29 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 8? May 08 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $59 −$58 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 74¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 76¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $38 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 68¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 68¢ $17 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 68¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $34 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL Yes 24¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 24¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 48¢ $24 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 46¢ $23 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? SELL Yes 46¢ $16 8d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 8d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 563 history records