Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:14:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x073e…8416 crypto 511 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,766 (-5%) realized −$2,633 · open −$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate74%347W / 124L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$142
14 days−$332
30 days−$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$793
finance 20% −$130
other 7% −$329
tech 3% −$1
sports 0% +$10
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 42 -21.0% -28.5% 50% 0% -13.9%
≤90d 364 -7.4% -16.2% 73% 39% -12.7%
all 471 -4.9% -13.9% 74% 43% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 43% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 9% -20.3%
15% -29.7% 4% -28.0%
20% -36.6% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$39 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$1,179
Realized−$2,633
Unrealized−$133
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses347 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions40
Markets (closed)471 / 511
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$100
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 471 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 95¢ 96¢ $172 $173 +$1 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? No 96¢ 95¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? No 86¢ 86¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 95¢ 92¢ $67 $65 −$2 (-3%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 79¢ 81¢ $56 $58 +$1 (+3%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 92¢ 92¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+1%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 84¢ 84¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? No 97¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-2%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 15 2026? No 87¢ 18¢ $130 $28 −$103 (-79%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? No 74¢ 57¢ $28 $22 −$7 (-23%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? No 83¢ 87¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-28%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $13 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-51%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 98¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? No 86¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 18 $399 +$2 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 18 $338 +$3 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 18 $783 −$18 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $171 +$7 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 18 $46 +$2 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 18 $586 −$56 -10%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $105 +$3 +3%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $157.50 Week of June 15 20 Jun 18 $14 +$1 +7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 18 $248 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 18 $209 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $202 −$2 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $1,163 $0 -0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 16 $675 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $81 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $104 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 11 $200 −$197 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 10 $552 +$6 +1%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? Jun 05 $105 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $96 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $65 +$2 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $110 +$1 +0%
Will Innio's market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IP Jun 03 $17 $0 -1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 2? Jun 02 $231 $0 +0%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.5B and $2.75B at marke Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Innio's market cap be between $20B and $23B at market close on IP Jun 01 $69 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 1? Jun 01 $171 +$1 +1%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $306 +$2 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 29 $452 +$2 +0%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May? May 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? Apr 06 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 06 $6 +$5 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 3? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 3? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 3? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 3? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 3? Apr 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 3? Apr 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 83¢ $17 6m
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $194 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? BUY No 95¢ $67 11m
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $86 11m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? BUY Yes 49¢ $27 25m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 91¢ $152 29m
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $195 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 38m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? BUY No 86¢ $69 48m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 49m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 49m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 90¢ $150 53m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 80¢ $193 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 92¢ $48 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 89¢ $48 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 89¢ $23 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 94¢ $65 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 98¢ $161 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL No 80¢ $40 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 83¢ $168 2h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,179.41 · official $1,179.04 (match) · 3500 history records