Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:59:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x073c…4851 crypto 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$94 (+5%) realized +$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%41W / 23L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$60
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$10
other 6% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -10.3% -18.9% 63% 35% -6.8%
≤30d 64 -9.5% -18.1% 64% 36% -6.3%
≤90d 64 -9.5% -18.1% 64% 36% -6.3%
all 64 -9.5% -18.1% 64% 36% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 36% -6.3%
10% -25.9% 22% -15.2%
15% -33.1% 12% -23.4%
20% -39.6% 9% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses41 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage8d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $55 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $56 −$27 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $127 −$57 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $127 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $87 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $56 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $75 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $56 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $18 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$13 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$3 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records