Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0739…8f90 crypto 465 markets active 3h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,100 (-12%) realized −$2,582 · open −$518
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate19%88W / 375L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$734
sports 22% −$949
world 14% −$665
other 9% −$1,045
politics 9% −$1,267
culture 1% −$274
tech 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 463 +4.0% -5.9% 19% 18% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 18% -24.0%
10% -14.9% 18% -31.3%
15% -23.1% 17% -38.0%
20% -30.6% 16% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$38 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$518
Realized−$2,582
Unrealized−$518
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses88 / 375
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)463 / 465
History coverage548d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 463 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $679 $339 −$339 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $357 $178 −$178 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $2,205 −$322 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $1,627 −$351 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Mar 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $117 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Mar 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 03 $18 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 02 $9 +$91 +1011%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 01 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 01 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 01 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 01 $18 +$285 +1574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $699 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 3d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $58 6d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $309 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $6 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $4 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 93d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 93d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 93d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 93d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 93d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 93d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 93d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 94d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 94d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 94d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 94d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 94d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 94d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 94d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 94d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 94d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 94d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.75 · official $517.75 (match) · 2921 history records