Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:20:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x072f…ffdd sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31,471 (+15%) realized +$31,471 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$4,430per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$1,294est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,916
7 days+$16,404
14 days+$28,918
30 days+$28,918
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$9,576
sports 50% +$38,494
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -9.9% -18.4% 59% 44% -1.2%
≤30d 47 -2.8% -12.1% 51% 40% +3.0%
≤90d 47 -2.8% -12.1% 51% 40% +3.0%
all 47 -2.8% -12.1% 51% 40% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 40% +3.0%
10% -20.5% 32% -6.8%
15% ← realistic here -28.2% 28% -15.8%
20% -35.2% 19% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$6,360) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,504 vs −$1,356 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31,471
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1,294
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4,430
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2,627 −$2,627 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $1,566 −$1,535 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,175 −$2,175 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15,297 +$903 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $6,252 +$8,940 +143%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $9,984 +$2,496 +25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9,780 +$220 +2%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $2,568 +$1,172 +46%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $5,519 +$6,421 +116%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $14,769 −$654 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $4,335 −$4,335 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17,488 +$762 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $6,689 +$5,311 +79%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $993 +$365 +37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,605 −$1,269 -49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $593 −$593 -100%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 19 $498 −$498 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $6,990 −$6,990 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,675 +$1,575 +43%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,334 −$901 -68%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15,938 +$2,812 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $4,799 +$4,079 +85%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5,634 +$791 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,690 +$107 +2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16,866 +$1,534 +9%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $2,285 +$435 +19%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $1,680 +$398 +24%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $895 +$1,005 +112%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,475 −$2,475 -100%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 16 $189 −$189 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6,360 +$1,320 +21%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $608 +$1,432 +235%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $424 +$644 +152%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $62 −$5 -8%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 10 $485 −$485 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 10 $1,605 −$1,605 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7,124 +$8,817 +124%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1,189 +$509 +43%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,880 −$1,880 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $12,975 +$8,050 +62%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2,894 −$2,894 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Tiffon vs Blanch Jun 07 $364 −$25 -7%
Lyon: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Dali Blanch Jun 07 $551 −$27 -5%
Bratislava: Alex Molcan vs Petr Brunclik Jun 07 $336 −$11 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Molcan vs Brunclik Jun 07 $180 −$6 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $57 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $7 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $2 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $4 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $7 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $697 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $0 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $0 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $1 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $784 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $8 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $265 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $3 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $9 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $36 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $6 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $21 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $2 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $43 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $73 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $4 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $6 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $25 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 481 history records