Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x072f…b646 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-44%) realized −$59 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$76
other 7% +$15
politics 8% $0
sports 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-54.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -49.6% -54.4% 29% 14% -59.4%
≤30d 7 -49.6% -54.4% 29% 14% -59.4%
≤90d 7 -49.6% -54.4% 29% 14% -59.4%
all 7 -49.6% -54.4% 29% 14% -59.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.4% 14% -59.4%
10% -58.8% 14% -63.3%
15% -62.8% 14% -66.8%
20% -66.4% 14% -70.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$35 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.05 · official $14.05 (match) · 21 history records