Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

07 0x072f…be02 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL −$110 (-3%) realized −$66 · open −$44

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +94% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip

Net edge+62%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$577per market

Trades / day19.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)+75.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+93.7%	+75.2%	17%	17%	+496.6%
≤30d	6	+93.7%	+75.2%	17%	17%	+496.6%
≤90d	6	+93.7%	+75.2%	17%	17%	+496.6%
all	6	+93.7%	+75.2%	17%	17%	+496.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover19.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+75.2%	17%	+496.6%
10%	+58.5%	17%	+439.5%
15%	+43.2%	17%	+387.4%
20%	+29.1%	17%	+339.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +559% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +94% · $-wt +559% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5,765 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$219

Realized−$66

Unrealized−$44

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$577

Trades / day19.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$263	$219	−$44 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	Jun 22	$1,026	+$5,765	+562%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria?	Jun 22	$199	$0	+0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria?	Jun 22	$271	$0	+0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$925	$0	+0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria?	Jun 22	$525	$0	+0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$822	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	BUY Yes	9¢	$270	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,844	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$460	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$719	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$480	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$596	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$514	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$849	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$470	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$355	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$504	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria?	BUY Yes	3¢	$199	5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria?	BUY Yes	4¢	$69	5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1	5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria?	BUY Yes	4¢	$202	5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	9¢	$525	6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$924	6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$822	6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	15¢	$1,026	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.39 · official $219.39 (match) · 19 history records