Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x072e…1cc5 crypto 646 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$360 (-2%) realized −$360 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate68%447W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day58.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$309
7 days−$248
14 days−$277
30 days−$402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$671
other 0% −$23
sports 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -10.2% -18.7% 47% 42% -27.8%
≤30d 228 -11.7% -20.1% 51% 41% -24.2%
≤90d 656 -6.3% -15.3% 68% 55% -15.2%
all 656 -6.3% -15.3% 68% 55% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 55% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 32% -23.3%
15% -30.8% 20% -30.7%
20% -37.6% 11% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$360
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses447 / 209
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)656 / 646
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day58.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 656 Trades
no open positions (183 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 30 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 30 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 30 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 30 $67 +$47 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 30 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $44 +$49 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$13 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $40 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $22 +$39 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$12 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $12 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$23 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 29 $34 +$16 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$9 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $12 +$15 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$9 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $18 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $13 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $22 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $23 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $23 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $34 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $9 24h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $19 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $18 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records