Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x072c…bd4a crypto 250 markets active 1d ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$166 (-0%) realized −$167 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate89%213W / 26L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$538
14 days−$536
30 days−$515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$221
other 13% −$87
politics 6% +$44
world 4% +$69
sports 3% −$356
culture 2% +$20
weather 1% −$83
economics 0% −$7
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -40.2% -45.9% 50% 19% -31.3%
≤30d 33 -21.8% -29.3% 73% 12% -19.0%
≤90d 52 -13.4% -21.6% 83% 8% -15.7%
all 239 -5.5% -14.5% 89% 8% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 8% -9.9%
10% -22.7% 3% -18.5%
15% -30.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -37.0% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$33 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$1,209
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses213 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions13
Markets (closed)239 / 250
History coverage584d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $352 $349 −$2 (-1%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? No 93¢ 95¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
McDonald's CEO out by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on wee Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $37 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $522 −$375 -72%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $802 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $148 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $14 +$6 +48%
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E4 S9 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Karl" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $17 +$3 +18%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $82 −$49 -60%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 13 $215 −$173 -81%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during Jun 13 $195 +$12 +6%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $75 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $253 +$54 +21%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 9? Jun 10 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? Jun 09 $77 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 June 1-7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 June 1-7? Jun 08 $153 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 June 1-7? Jun 08 $463 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 June 1-7? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 June 1-7? Jun 08 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 June 1-7? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 June 1-7? Jun 08 $159 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $499 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $418 +$17 +4%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will "Amortization" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade St May 20 $4 $0 +11%
Will "Patreon" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand P May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will "Apple" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod May 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Will "Left" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc May 20 $0 $0 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $51 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $409 +$7 +2%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 17 $52 +$1 +3%
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 4-10? May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $296 +$17 +6%
Will XRP reach $2.10 April 27-May 3? May 07 $2 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $26 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in April? May 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Ethena reach $0.32 in April? Apr 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 490 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 22 $205 +$2 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 April 6-12? Apr 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.00 April 6-12? Apr 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? Apr 15 $189 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.10 March 30-April 5? Apr 08 $159 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? Apr 01 $29 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $352 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 14¢ $26 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 83¢ $208 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 28¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 28¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $125 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $167 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? SELL No 99¢ $198 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 99¢ $338 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 99¢ $110 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 99¢ $110 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 99¢ $110 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 100¢ $119 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 98¢ $98 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 98¢ $44 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 98¢ $5 4d
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E4 S9 BUY Yes $1 4d
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $14 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $37 4d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n SELL Yes $2 5d
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5d
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during BUY Yes 99¢ $148 5d
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 5d
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 99¢ $75 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,209.27 · official $1,209.27 (match) · 2634 history records