Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x0729…5f54
weather · 341 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4,342 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,039 · open −$25
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$366
Realized−$3,039
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses236 / 137
Open positions4
Markets (closed)373 / 341
History coverage15d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day232.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 4 History 373 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,762
7 days−$3,120
14 days−$3,321
30 days−$3,039
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? No 93¢ 94¢ $128 $130 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? No 51¢ 52¢ $118 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? No 88¢ 74¢ $140 $118 −$22 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? No 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 4? No 79¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2? No 88¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 17? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 29? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 28? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 9? No 20¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? No 97¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28? No 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 3? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? No 76¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? No 88¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 31? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 29? No 81¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 5? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2? Jun 14 $18 −$17 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 17? Jun 14 $175 −$175 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 29? Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 28? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? Jun 14 $72 −$175 -244%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28? Jun 14 $1 −$17 -2632%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 29? Jun 14 $102 −$146 -144%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 2? Jun 14 $220 −$220 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 29? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17? Jun 14 $29 −$25 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17? Jun 14 $35 −$3 -8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15? Jun 14 $445 −$761 -171%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 19? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 29? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16? Jun 14 $59 −$229 -390%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 27? Jun 14 $2 −$73 -3098%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23? Jun 14 $179 −$264 -147%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 27? Jun 14 $140 −$208 -149%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 −$2 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 −$17 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $69 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $170 +$24 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $198 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $246 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $446 +$12 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $208 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $90 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% −$113
other 4% −$190
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $3 59m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $5 59m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $7 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 73¢ $24 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 75¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 52¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 91¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 85¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 91¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 80¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -25.4% -32.5% 52% 13% -19.9%
≤30d 373 -11.2% -19.6% 63% 14% -14.1%
≤90d 373 -11.2% -19.6% 63% 14% -14.1%
all 373 -11.2% -19.6% 63% 14% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover232.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 14% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 7% -22.3%
15% -34.3% 5% -29.8%
20% -40.8% 3% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.50 · official $365.50 (match) · 3500 history records