Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x0728…40f4 other 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$221 (+2%) realized +$152 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate47%44W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,179
7 days+$1,602
14 days+$447
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$690
world 21% −$99
sports 19% −$143
weather 13% −$138
crypto 8% −$112
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +28.5% +16.3% 32% 32% +29.3%
≤30d 57 +5.8% -4.2% 49% 26% -5.6%
≤90d 82 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 18% -9.3%
all 93 +3.1% -6.7% 47% 24% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 24% -8.5%
10% -15.6% 19% -17.2%
15% -23.8% 16% -25.2%
20% -31.3% 14% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$75 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$1,443
Realized+$152
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses44 / 49
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions6
Markets (closed)93 / 99
History coverage103d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 87¢ 100¢ $719 $824 +$105 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 59¢ 95¢ $201 $322 +$121 (+60%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Under 68¢ 99¢ $204 $296 +$92 (+45%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$106 +52%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $51 +$68 +134%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $28 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $103 +$731 +712%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $114 +$86 +75%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $302 +$93 +31%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $99 −$96 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $131 +$669 +510%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $18 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $107 −$104 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $111 −$108 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $111 −$108 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,105 +$174 +16%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 +$1,147 +1116%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $181 −$178 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $478 −$468 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $587 −$580 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$10 -10%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23? May 27 $16 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 24? May 27 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 24? May 27 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 24? May 27 $84 +$16 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 24? May 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24? May 27 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 24? May 27 $100 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 68¢ $206 33m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $48 56m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $540 56m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $112 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $133 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $103 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $101 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 12h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 12h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 22h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 22h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 76¢ $302 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $114 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $99 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 25h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $131 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $107 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $111 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $111 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $107 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,442.99 · official $1,428.16 · 264 history records