Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
07 0x0727…b280 world 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%44W / 58L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$7
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$6
other 17% $0
sports 10% −$1
economics 10% +$1
politics 6% +$9
finance 3% +$6
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 17% -9.3%
≤30d 26 -0.7% -10.1% 54% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 41 +0.2% -9.3% 49% 10% -9.2%
all 102 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 7% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses44 / 58
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage448d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $108 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $48 +$1 +2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $32 −$2 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $20 −$2 -12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $27 +$5 +17%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $393 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $128 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $21 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $69 +$3 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $142 +$4 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $100 −$5 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $244 +$3 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $7 $0 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $337 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $104 +$4 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $6 +$2 +28%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $206 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $2 $0 -25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $189 +$6 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $32 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $7 −$3 -42%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $391 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $112 −$2 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $103 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $21 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 18 $100 −$6 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $86 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $56 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $75 +$8 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $230 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $539 −$2 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $659 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $69 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $61 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Esteban Ocon finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 03 $27 $0 -1%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $73 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 47¢ $49 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $48 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $28 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $32 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $101 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $18 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $123 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $27 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $70 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $70 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $11 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $7 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $73 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $90 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.17 · official $111.17 (match) · 423 history records