Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x0727…2a7c
other · 18 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$6 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 16 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 28¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Yes 40¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 05 $62 −$5 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% −$1
politics 35% −$5
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $2 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 7h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 28¢ $0 3d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 28¢ $1 3d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 28¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 6d
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 7d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 584d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 39¢ $39 588d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 597d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 599d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 599d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 600d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 44¢ $17 600d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 601d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-83.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -96.0% -96.4% 0% 0% -96.4%
≤30d 1 -96.0% -96.4% 0% 0% -96.4%
≤90d 1 -96.0% -96.4% 0% 0% -96.4%
all 2 -81.7% -83.5% 0% 0% -76.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -83.5% 0% -76.7%
10% -85.1% 0% -78.9%
15% -86.5% 0% -80.9%
20% -87.8% 0% -82.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.85 · official $113.85 (match) · 38 history records