Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0726…2c45 crypto 374 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,113 (-22%) realized −$1,107 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%94W / 276L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day91.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$563
14 days−$1,537
30 days−$1,322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,287
other 7% +$1
politics 2% −$89
sports 1% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -44.0% -49.3% 23% 23% -46.7%
≤30d 370 -31.7% -38.2% 25% 25% -35.4%
≤90d 370 -31.7% -38.2% 25% 25% -35.4%
all 370 -31.7% -38.2% 25% 25% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.2% 25% -35.4%
10% ← realistic here -44.1% 24% -41.6%
15% -49.5% 23% -47.2%
20% -54.4% 22% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$12 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$1,107
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses94 / 276
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)370 / 374
History coverage15d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day91.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 51¢ 44¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$27 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $175 −$13 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$15 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$21 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$13 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$24 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$9 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$37 +389%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$28 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 47m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 48m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 48m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 51¢ $15 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $28 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.73 · official $84.20 (match) · 1542 history records