Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
07 0x0724…9091 other 280 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$88 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%98W / 181L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$782per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$499est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$1,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 178d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$3,928
sports 21% −$5,903
world 0% −$468
weather 0% +$18
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -51.1% -55.8% 12% 12% -51.2%
≤30d 44 -46.9% -52.0% 20% 18% -56.8%
≤90d 117 -8.5% -17.2% 34% 32% -8.4%
all 279 -9.5% -18.1% 35% 34% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 34% -10.5%
10% -26.0% 32% -19.1%
15% -33.1% 32% -26.9%
20% -39.7% 31% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$1,161) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,311 vs −$723 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$1,281
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses98 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$499
Open positions1
Markets (closed)279 / 280
History coverage178d
Avg bet$782
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 36¢ $1,367 $1,281 −$87 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,204 −$1,181 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,086 −$1,063 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,425 −$1,400 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $889 −$869 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $950 −$929 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $886 +$2,580 +291%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,232 −$1,208 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $92 +$97 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,328 +$2,016 +152%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $938 −$918 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,780 +$2,702 +152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,736 +$1,900 +109%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-31? Jun 11 $88 −$88 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 11 $217 −$217 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $198 −$198 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 11 $271 −$271 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 11 $429 −$429 -100%
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $414 −$414 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $470 −$470 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Jun 11 $464 −$464 -100%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 11 $1,161 −$1,161 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev Jun 11 $1,051 −$1,051 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 11 $1,240 −$1,240 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? Jun 11 $1,162 −$1,160 -100%
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-28? Jun 11 $2,233 −$2,233 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $2,278 −$2,278 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,082 −$1,060 -98%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $374 +$808 +216%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $266 +$386 +145%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1,124 −$1,124 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $738 +$1,938 +262%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex Michelsen May 25 $246 −$246 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 25 $273 −$273 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 25 $1,067 −$1,067 -100%
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 25 $1,759 −$1,759 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-15? May 25 $1,880 −$1,868 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 25 $2,686 −$2,686 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 25 $2,526 −$2,526 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-16? May 25 $1,910 −$1,910 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $3 $0 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $509 +$1,482 +291%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3,650 +$4,487 +123%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,472 +$3,313 +134%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $488 +$493 +101%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2,819 +$4,304 +153%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $2,894 +$2,593 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $18 30m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $45 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 32¢ $1 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 32¢ $51 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $124 7h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1,251 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $109 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $4 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $1,091 38h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $97 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $8 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $980 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $129 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $13 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $1,283 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $73 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $8 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $808 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $84 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $864 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $80 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $806 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $109 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $2 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $1,121 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $6 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $86 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $60 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,280.68 · official $1,280.68 (match) · 1005 history records