Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0724…431d crypto 45 markets active 4h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-8%) realized −$9 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$2
other 10% −$7
sports 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -35.7% -41.8% 23% 15% -21.0%
≤30d 44 -25.5% -32.6% 23% 18% -18.3%
≤90d 44 -25.5% -32.6% 23% 18% -18.3%
all 44 -25.5% -32.6% 23% 18% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 18% -18.3%
10% -39.1% 14% -26.1%
15% -45.0% 14% -33.3%
20% -50.4% 11% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage9d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $13 +$2 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -17%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Varbergs BoIS win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Orebro SK win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Orebro SK vs. GIF Sundsvall end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$5 +140%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$15 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +90%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $0 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.79 · official $27.79 (match) · 139 history records