Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0724…58a9 crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$65 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$290
7 days+$197
14 days+$230
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$101
other 20% −$108
sports 6% +$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.4% -16.2% 61% 48% -1.0%
≤30d 32 -0.4% -9.9% 72% 50% -0.4%
≤90d 32 -0.4% -9.9% 72% 50% -0.4%
all 32 -0.4% -9.9% 72% 50% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 50% -0.4%
10% -18.5% 34% -9.9%
15% -26.4% 19% -18.6%
20% -33.6% 12% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$50 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage7d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $489 $450 −$39 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $485 +$37 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $617 −$135 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $136 +$10 +7%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $204 +$400 +196%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$29 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $146 −$40 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $136 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$30 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $83 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $83 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $37 +$14 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$12 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$16 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $133 −$130 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $90 +$47 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $65 +$26 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $45 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $494 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $32 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $522 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $485 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $485 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $481 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $137 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $145 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $136 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $604 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $71 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 60¢ $106 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $133 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $146 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $145 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $136 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $61 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $83 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $97 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $83 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $18 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.07 · official $450.07 (match) · 68 history records