Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
07 0x071f…92bd sports 1385 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$425 (+1%) realized +$419 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate70%962W / 422L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$370est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$129
14 days−$3,261
30 days−$1,208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$143
other 0% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -6.0% -15.0% 72% 72% -13.8%
≤30d 486 -4.1% -13.2% 69% 69% -13.9%
≤90d 1206 +2.9% -6.9% 71% 71% -9.5%
all 1384 +3.4% -6.5% 70% 68% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 68% -9.4%
10% -15.4% 53% -18.1%
15% -23.6% 31% -26.0%
20% -31.1% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$30 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$419
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses962 / 422
Est. fees paid−$370
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1384 / 1385
History coverage138d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Nick Hardt 86¢ 100¢ $39 $45 +$6 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $31 +$14 +46%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $28 +$9 +32%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $72 +$14 +20%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $19 +$10 +55%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $23 −$23 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $47 +$9 +18%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $27 +$4 +16%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $8 +$2 +18%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $33 +$8 +23%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $81 +$13 +16%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $34 +$7 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $47 +$11 +24%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $31 +$13 +42%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $32 +$14 +44%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $85 +$14 +16%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $32 +$8 +24%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $57 +$11 +20%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $46 +$6 +14%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 16 $61 +$10 +17%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $59 +$15 +26%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $49 +$15 +31%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $25 +$7 +26%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $25 +$15 +62%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $19 +$10 +50%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $40 +$7 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $8 +$4 +42%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $23 +$9 +40%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $72 +$13 +18%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $76 +$12 +16%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $31 +$6 +20%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $41 +$15 +36%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $56 +$14 +24%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $115 −$24 -21%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 13 $50 +$16 +32%
Ilkley: Katie Swan vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 13 $43 +$16 +38%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $29 +$9 +31%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $38 +$8 +21%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $34 −$34 -99%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $45 −$45 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 86¢ $39 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 83¢ $72 3h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Billy Harris 68¢ $31 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 65¢ $19 5h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 74¢ $23 6h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 79¢ $32 6h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 64¢ $19 6h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 75¢ $15 8h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 84¢ $47 9h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 75¢ $28 10h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 86¢ $27 25h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 84¢ $8 26h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 81¢ $33 26h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 72¢ $16 27h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 86¢ $81 28h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 83¢ $34 29h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 70¢ $31 30h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk BUY Darja Vidmanova 80¢ $47 30h
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge BUY Elena Micic 86¢ $85 30h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 80¢ $32 31h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 69¢ $32 31h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 66¢ $20 32h
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 85¢ $61 32h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 88¢ $46 32h
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 83¢ $57 33h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 83¢ $39 33h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 87¢ $55 33h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 79¢ $59 33h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 76¢ $49 47h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 77¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.48 · official $45.48 (match) · 3181 history records