Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:04:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x071f…286c
crypto · 29 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage9d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? No 73¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn Jun 06 $1 $0 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 53% −$2
crypto 45% −$4
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 94¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? SELL No 89¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 94¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -14.1% -22.3% 54% 38% -18.1%
≤30d 27 -11.8% -20.2% 56% 41% -17.2%
≤90d 27 -11.8% -20.2% 56% 41% -17.2%
all 27 -11.8% -20.2% 56% 41% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 41% -17.2%
10% -27.8% 33% -25.1%
15% -34.8% 19% -32.3%
20% -41.2% 15% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.76 · official $1.76 (match) · 71 history records