Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x071e…c323 crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+0%) realized +$69 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%41W / 3L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$1,054per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$4,649now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$53
other 5% +$10
world 5% $0
tech 1% +$1
politics 1% +$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 88% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.4% 88% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 30 +0.4% -9.2% 93% 0% -9.4%
all 44 +0.4% -9.2% 93% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$2,009) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.21 per $1 lost it wins $7.21
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$4,649
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses41 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)44 / 50
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,054
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,994 $1,992 −$2 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,004 $1,005 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $998 −$2 (-0%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $326 $330 +$3 (+1%)
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $125 $126 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,593 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $3,591 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $6,553 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $6,599 −$9 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,488 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,487 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $105 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? Jun 01 $110 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 05 $529 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 15? Apr 18 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $506 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $543 +$1 +0%
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $101 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $101 +$2 +2%
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $110 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $184 +$3 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 02 $542 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? Mar 27 $617 +$1 +0%
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 25 $616 +$1 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $2,182 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $2,217 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $2,215 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $2,220 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $2,317 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $2,009 +$4 +0%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? Mar 05 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of February? Feb 28 $479 $0 +0%
Hyperlend FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 28 $1,600 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 23? Feb 25 $479 $0 +0%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 24 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,994 1h
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $111 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $999 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2,593 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $999 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $999 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $999 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $997 26h
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $227 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,239 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $355 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $208 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $558 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $997 2d
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $150 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5,590 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $813 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,432 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $800 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $350 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,649.39 · official $4,649.29 (match) · 134 history records