Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x071d…07ef other 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (317 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$193 (-4%) realized −$191 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%58W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day317.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$187
14 days−$219
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (317 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 -15.2% -23.2% 19% 11% -10.7%
≤30d 265 -13.5% -21.7% 22% 12% -10.9%
≤90d 265 -13.5% -21.7% 22% 12% -10.9%
all 265 -13.5% -21.7% 22% 12% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover317.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 12% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 9% -19.4%
15% -36.1% 8% -27.2%
20% -42.3% 6% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$191
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses58 / 207
Open positions36
Markets (closed)265 / 174
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day317.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 85¢ 85¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in July 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+212%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in July 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 139 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -792%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $0 −$3 -9073%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Jun 16 $0 +$10 +2434%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 +2150%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +228%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -995%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in May 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1760-1839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in April 2026? Jun 16 $0 −$18 -22880%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in May 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 16 $0 −$12 -2968%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1101%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -222%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -2000%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 +300%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -134%
Will Elon Musk post 1560-1599 tweets in May 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -154%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$17 -536%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 16 $0 −$5 -3277%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +2050%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 3m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6m
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 18m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 19m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 24m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 26m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 26m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $9 34m
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 37m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $1 38m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 38m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $8 39m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 40m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 40m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 40m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 41m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 42m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 42m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 43m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 56m
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.74 · official $42.73 (match) · 3500 history records