Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
07 0x0713…d5c7 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$319 (-51%) realized −$319 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$131
14 days−$189
30 days−$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$230
crypto 33% −$195
sports 15% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 50% -66.9%
≤30d 6 -31.9% -38.4% 33% 33% -56.7%
≤90d 6 -31.9% -38.4% 33% 33% -56.7%
all 6 -31.9% -38.4% 33% 33% -56.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.4% 33% -56.7%
10% -44.3% 33% -60.9%
15% -49.7% 33% -64.6%
20% -54.6% 33% -68.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$115 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$319
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage28d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $42 +$35 +84%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $176 −$166 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $62 −$58 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $43 −$41 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $211 −$195 -93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $95 +$114 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 33¢ $176 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $62 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $43 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $211 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $95 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.43 · official $75.43 (match) · 7 history records