Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:19:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x0710…1b16 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%11W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$647now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% $0
other 44% +$5
economics 7% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 11 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$647
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses11 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage74d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $648 $647 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $377 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $400 $0 +0%
Will Sung Il-jong win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 04 $247 $0 +0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? Jun 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $286 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 26 $312 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 25 $334 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $221 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 18 $425 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $520 end of April? May 01 $643 +$3 +0%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get less than 2m views in the first week? Apr 10 $642 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $646.81 · official $646.81 (match) · 23 history records