Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x070f…ed83 sports 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (114 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$85 (-3%) realized −$64 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%26W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day114.0pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$980now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$127
other 25% +$12
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (114 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -26.4% -33.4% 52% 50% -14.5%
≤30d 50 -26.4% -33.4% 52% 50% -14.5%
≤90d 50 -26.4% -33.4% 52% 50% -14.5%
all 50 -26.4% -33.4% 52% 50% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.4% 50% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -39.7% 32% -22.7%
15% -45.6% 22% -30.2%
20% -50.9% 14% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$22 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$980
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions32
Markets (closed)50 / 83
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day114.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 64¢ 61¢ $129 $122 −$7 (-5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 82¢ $84 $82 −$2 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 70¢ $71 $70 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Over 57¢ 60¢ $57 $60 +$3 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 55¢ 54¢ $55 $54 −$2 (-3%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 55¢ 52¢ $55 $52 −$4 (-6%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $29 $24 −$4 (-16%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Portugal 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 92¢ 92¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 87¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 84¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Qatar 72¢ 70¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 44¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $13 +$2 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$39 +65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $80 +$20 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +62%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $102 −$2 -2%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $55 +$45 +83%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 17 $58 +$42 +72%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $81 +$19 +23%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 17 $57 +$43 +76%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 17 $70 +$30 +44%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $8 +$2 +18%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $37 +$18 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $8 +$2 +31%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $58 −$57 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $48 −$47 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $54 −$53 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $92 +$33 +36%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $80 +$20 +24%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $85 +$15 +17%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $47 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $72 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $54 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $56 3h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 68¢ $69 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $57 12h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 49¢ $0 12h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 49¢ $9 12h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $9 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $54 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 12h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 12h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 60¢ $61 12h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 58¢ $3 12h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 58¢ $3 12h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 58¢ $7 12h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 58¢ $4 12h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 58¢ $2 12h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 58¢ $34 12h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $56 12h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 81¢ $81 12h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $44 12h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $2 12h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $15 12h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 61¢ $62 12h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 58¢ $6 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $979.69 · official $1,078.69 · 148 history records