Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x070f…e902 weather 388 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,437 (-6%) realized −$1,441 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate61%236W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$354
7 days−$254
14 days−$346
30 days−$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% −$1,471
crypto 4% −$214
other 2% +$143
world 2% +$125
sports 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 69% 38% -24.7%
≤30d 95 +7.9% -2.4% 75% 35% -12.3%
≤90d 274 -10.9% -19.4% 59% 30% -11.4%
all 387 -10.7% -19.2% 61% 35% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 35% -14.6%
10% -26.9% 24% -22.8%
15% -34.0% 14% -30.2%
20% -40.4% 8% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$27 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$1,441
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses236 / 151
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)387 / 388
History coverage132d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? No 85¢ 100¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $166 +$90 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 17 $13 −$8 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $442 −$418 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $67 +$10 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $86 +$14 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$35 +236%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $171 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $175 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $168 +$12 +7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $79 +$21 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $299 +$28 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $105 +$17 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $365 −$164 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $117 +$53 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $184 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $28 +$21 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $264 −$55 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $91 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $111 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $79 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $192 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $16 +$11 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $138 +$26 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $451 −$149 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $146 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $12 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 4? Jun 04 $68 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $416 +$52 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $44 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $56 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $65 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $35 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 −$6 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $6 −$4 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $215 +$15 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $96 +$85 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2? Jun 02 $221 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $140 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $162 +$9 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $77 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $9 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $25 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $33 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $173 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $24 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 14¢ $23 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $25 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $34 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $49 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $45 22h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 2¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 11¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? SELL No 11¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 17¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 15¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $49 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $16 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $11 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 20¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 20¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.42 · official $29.42 (match) · 1611 history records