Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
07 0x070e…3518 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$4
other 24% +$13
politics 13% +$17
sports 12% −$30
crypto 3% $0
weather 3% +$16
tech 2% $0
economics 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.2% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 22% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 22% 0% -9.2%
all 49 +6.0% -4.1% 41% 8% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 8% -8.1%
10% -13.3% 8% -16.9%
15% -21.6% 6% -24.9%
20% -29.3% 6% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage489d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 88¢ 90¢ $49 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $51 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $81 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $97 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $2 $0 -28%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 09 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $24 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 08 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before April? Apr 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $18 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 30 $47 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.125 in March? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 23? Mar 25 $26 $0 +1%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 23 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $7 $0 -6%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $1 $0 +27%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday? Mar 11 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 5? Mar 07 $10 +$15 +156%
Will AZ Alkmaar vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Mar 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Sabres vs. Lightning Mar 05 $23 $0 -2%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 38-42m viewers? Mar 05 $34 $0 -0%
Evansville vs. Murray State Mar 05 $35 $0 -1%
Mercer vs. Marist Mar 05 $34 $0 +0%
Rhode Island vs. St. Joseph's Mar 05 $40 −$5 -14%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-25? Mar 05 $26 +$14 +54%
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 25 $8 +$17 +201%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 20 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $49 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $45 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $11 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $3 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $3 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $39 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $25 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $18 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $48 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $48 24h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $25 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $29 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $4 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $33 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $48 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $47 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $18 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.71 · official $50.68 (match) · 163 history records