Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x070b…ec5e crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$910 (+17%) realized +$905 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$53
14 days+$11
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$789
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% -15.5%
≤30d 13 +8.3% -2.0% 62% 46% -6.7%
≤90d 28 +37.5% +24.4% 43% 36% +3.9%
all 33 +24.2% +12.4% 39% 33% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 33% +4.2%
10% +1.6% 18% -5.7%
15% -8.2% 15% -14.8%
20% -17.2% 15% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$22 · ×4.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$905
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage126d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? No 83¢ 86¢ $166 $171 +$5 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $282 −$144 -51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $13 +$15 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $199 −$4 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $301 +$82 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $504 +$64 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $47 −$12 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $555 +$34 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $370 −$26 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $351 −$59 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $555 +$31 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $344 +$45 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $328 +$66 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $347 +$39 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $120 +$313 +260%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 27 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $64 +$442 +692%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 16 $62 −$57 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $57 −$49 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 05 $9 −$2 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $168 −$39 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 25 $41 −$8 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 22 $4 +$17 +432%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 17 $1 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 31? Apr 16 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? Apr 14 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $178 −$10 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 18? Mar 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 27? Feb 26 $83 −$18 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 23? Feb 25 $116 +$84 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 83¢ $168 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL No 36¢ $138 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 69¢ $282 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 7¢ $27 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $194 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $199 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? SELL No 96¢ $383 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 74¢ $301 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 95¢ $568 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $504 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? SELL No 9¢ $35 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 11¢ $47 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? SELL No 98¢ $589 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? SELL No 59¢ $344 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 60¢ $370 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $555 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? SELL No 74¢ $293 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY No 87¢ $351 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? SELL No 98¢ $586 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 92¢ $555 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? SELL No 97¢ $388 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 85¢ $344 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? SELL No 98¢ $395 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? SELL No 97¢ $387 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 81¢ $328 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 86¢ $347 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? SELL No 73¢ $432 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? SELL No 18¢ $2 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.00 · official $173.00 · 70 history records