Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0709…8f9a crypto 278 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,865 (-16%) realized −$1,865 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%163W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$86
14 days−$939
30 days−$1,026
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,968
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -23.0% -30.4% 45% 45% -30.6%
≤30d 149 -14.0% -22.2% 48% 48% -54.8%
≤90d 278 -7.9% -16.7% 59% 45% -24.8%
all 278 -7.9% -16.7% 59% 45% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 45% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 37% -32.0%
15% -31.9% 27% -38.6%
20% -38.6% 18% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$36 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,865
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses163 / 115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)278 / 278
History coverage41d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 278 Trades
no open positions (112 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$14 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +152%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $887 −$853 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 29 $7 +$8 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1001 history records