Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
07 0x0705…021a crypto 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-3%) realized −$66 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%113W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day55.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$34
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -44.2% -49.5% 31% 31% -31.7%
≤30d 26 +7.1% -3.1% 54% 46% -6.0%
≤90d 238 +3.1% -6.7% 47% 40% -11.6%
all 238 +3.1% -6.7% 47% 40% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 40% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 31% -20.1%
15% -23.8% 23% -27.8%
20% -31.3% 16% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses113 / 125
Open positions4
Markets (closed)238 / 242
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day55.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 13¢ 12¢ $13 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? No 36¢ 42¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? No 40¢ 40¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? No $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$6 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$39 +133%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$7 +83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 7? Jun 07 $7 $0 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$6 +126%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $4 +$13 +331%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$6 +111%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? Jun 06 $5 +$7 +141%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $12 −$2 -17%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 5? Jun 05 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 05 $12 +$10 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? Jun 04 $17 +$9 +50%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 4? Jun 04 $21 +$6 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $28 +$7 +26%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 11PM ET Apr 20 $3 −$2 -60%
Ethereum above 2,285 on April 19, 9PM ET? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 20 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 20 $7 −$3 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +71%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 2,255 on April 19, 8PM ET? Apr 20 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 2,285 on April 19, 8PM ET? Apr 20 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 8PM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 8PM ET Apr 20 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8PM ET Apr 20 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7PM ET Apr 20 $24 −$14 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above 2,245 on April 19, 7PM ET? Apr 20 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum above 2,275 on April 19, 7PM ET? Apr 20 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$2 -38%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 6PM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 11¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 13¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 58¢ $13 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 40¢ $7 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 36¢ $7 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 28¢ $3 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 29¢ $4 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $7 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 34¢ $6 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 34¢ $1 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 51¢ $68 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 17¢ $11 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 17¢ $2 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 18¢ $2 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 18¢ $1 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 24¢ $12 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 25¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 25¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY No $7 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.73 · official $31.73 (match) · 3500 history records