Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0705…b7dd sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-26%) realized −$21 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$22
world 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -41.5% -47.1% 25% 25% -52.3%
≤30d 4 -41.5% -47.1% 25% 25% -52.3%
≤90d 4 -41.5% -47.1% 25% 25% -52.3%
all 4 -41.5% -47.1% 25% 25% -52.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 25% -52.3%
10% -52.1% 25% -56.9%
15% -56.8% 25% -61.0%
20% -61.0% 25% -64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 59¢ 60¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 41¢ 40¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $15 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $15 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $15 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $10 23h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $10 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.68 · official $45.68 (match) · 9 history records