Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x0704…1858
economics · 38 markets active 26d ago
0.0score
+$197,766 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$77,684 · open +$119,501
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY economics specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$431,097
Realized+$77,684
Unrealized+$119,501
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses28 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 38
History coverage418d
Avg bet$118,692
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$138,210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 99¢ $311,596 $431,097 +$119,501 (+38%)
Palisades wildfire burns 10,000 acres by Friday? No 27¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Biden" during his DOJ appearance on Friday? No 21¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Palisades wildfire burns 10,000 acres by Friday? Jun 12 $28 −$27 -96%
Will Trump say "Biden" during his DOJ appearance on Friday? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $126,317 −$126,242 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $12,526 −$11,942 -95%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $400,314 +$23,883 +6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 05 $15,638 −$15,638 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $327,595 +$231,498 +71%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 12 $300,108 −$104,987 -35%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 09 $90,569 −$82,089 -91%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $394,909 +$173,797 +44%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 14 $161,096 −$161,096 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $319,532 +$56,064 +18%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $33,885 −$33,885 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $333,060 +$17,529 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $330 +$329,712 +100009%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 09 $319,757 −$319,757 -100%
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31? Aug 09 $11 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 31 $234,056 +$10,134 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1? Jul 03 $2,610 +$390 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 02 $18,533 +$19 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jul 02 $3,433 +$3 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 02 $2,076 +$2 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 01 $114,868 +$115 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jul 01 $19,472 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 01 $21,025 +$21 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 01 $27,492 +$28 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 30? Jun 30 $58,499 +$72 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 27? Jun 28 $122,063 +$122 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 20? Jun 20 $12,177 +$12 +0%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $179,916 +$180 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $238,863 +$29,331 +12%
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? Jun 12 $321 +$1,897 +590%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $172,772 +$28,294 +16%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $11,559 +$12 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $66,267 +$18,822 +28%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $15,694 +$10,092 +64%
Circle IPO in 2025? Mar 31 $46 +$249 +541%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $64,831 +$1,068 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 84% +$164,108
crypto 16% +$32,852
finance 0% +$2
other 0% +$249
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $76 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $37 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $8 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $7 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $8 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $5 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $10 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $138 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $11 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $6 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $9 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $9 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -98.2% -98.4% 0% 0% -96.8%
≤30d 4 -97.9% -98.1% 0% 0% -99.6%
≤90d 7 -59.3% -63.2% 29% 14% +0.9%
all 39 +64.1% +48.5% 72% 28% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +48.5% 28% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here +34.3% 18% -22.9%
15% +21.3% 15% -30.4%
20% +9.4% 13% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $431,097.21 · official $431,097.21 (match) · 3500 history records