trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 64¢ | 60¢ | $60 | $56 | −$4 (-7%) |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 46¢ | 42¢ | $60 | $55 | −$5 (-9%) |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 76¢ | 54¢ | $30 | $21 | −$9 (-30%) |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 34¢ | 34¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $15 | $10 | −$5 (-36%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $100 | +$7 | +7% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +6.6% | -3.6% | 100% | 0% | -3.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +6.6% | -3.6% | 100% | 0% | -3.6% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +6.6% | -3.6% | 100% | 0% | -3.6% |
| all | 1 | +6.6% | -3.6% | 100% | 0% | -3.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.6% | 0% | -3.6% |
| 10% | -12.8% | 0% | -12.8% |
| 15% | -21.2% | 0% | -21.2% |
| 20% | -29.0% | 0% | -29.0% |