Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
06 0x06fa…31d9 sports 201 markets active 9h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$152 (+24%) realized +$146 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%118W / 75L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$158
14 days+$134
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$23
world 8% +$158
other 5% −$2
politics 3% +$4
crypto 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +196.1% +167.9% 60% 50% +356.3%
≤30d 193 +8.5% -1.9% 61% 57% +11.6%
≤90d 193 +8.5% -1.9% 61% 57% +11.6%
all 193 +8.5% -1.9% 61% 57% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 57% +11.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 45% +0.9%
15% -19.8% 31% -8.8%
20% -27.7% 21% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$146
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses118 / 75
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)193 / 201
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 78¢ 98¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 34¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -26%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$127 +1268%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +180%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +426%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $7 +$27 +380%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $5 −$1 -19%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $4 $0 +7%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 -2%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $2 +$2 +94%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $2 +$2 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +23%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 08 $2 +$1 +55%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 −$1 -30%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $2 $0 -9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 +34%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $6 +$2 +34%
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 08 $3 $0 +14%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $5 −$1 -22%
Modena: Jeline Vandromme vs Angela Fita Boluda Jun 08 $2 $0 +20%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $5 +$2 +48%
Ilkley: August Holmgren vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $6 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $9 +$3 +34%
Lyon: Laslo Djere vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 08 $4 $0 +10%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $5 −$4 -70%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $5 −$2 -35%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $5 −$2 -34%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 08 $1 $0 +38%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 08 $2 +$1 +39%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $5 +$4 +85%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $5 −$3 -67%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$2 -38%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $3 $0 +15%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $5 −$1 -13%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $4 −$2 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 34¢ $2 8h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 34¢ $0 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $2 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $2 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.08 · official $54.08 (match) · 844 history records