Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

06
0x06f9…8f53
other · 32 markets active 1h ago
7.0score
+$38 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$38 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$35
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)27 / 32
History coverage122d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 5 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$16
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 12¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-19? Yes 58¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 83¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 25¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Yes 25¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 61¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 18¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11? Up 69¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-19? Yes 12¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Yes 22¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Yes 42¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Yes 23¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 16¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Yes 20¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +249%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +34%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $5 +$23 +442%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 15 $15 +$6 +39%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $10 +$24 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-19? Feb 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $14 +$16 +117%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Feb 11 $10 +$9 +92%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 11 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$3
sports 24% +$73
crypto 21% −$15
finance 8% −$22
politics 6% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 6h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 6h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 6h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 4d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 4d
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5d
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9d
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 10d
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 10d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 13d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 37d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 37d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 38d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 38d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 44d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 45d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 58d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 58d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 63d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-19? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 85d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 87d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 87d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 93d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +141.5% +118.5% 100% 100% +86.6%
≤30d 7 +57.0% +42.0% 57% 57% +39.9%
≤90d 17 +32.0% +19.4% 47% 47% +17.5%
all 27 +25.5% +13.6% 48% 48% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.6% 48% +5.5%
10% +2.7% 44% -4.6%
15% -7.2% 41% -13.8%
20% -16.3% 33% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.24 · official $35.24 (match) · 49 history records