Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
06 0x06f8…2062 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
RISKYcopy with care
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14,539 (+86%) realized +$14,084 · open +$455
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%9W / 30L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$168est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$6,019now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,477
7 days+$11,477
14 days+$12,936
30 days+$12,936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$4,473
sports 27% +$8,946
crypto 5% −$405
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +5.3% -4.8% 19% 19% +117.3%
≤30d 36 +72.8% +56.3% 25% 25% +101.6%
≤90d 39 +59.5% +44.3% 23% 23% +94.5%
all 39 +59.5% +44.3% 23% 23% +94.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.3% 23% +94.5%
10% +30.5% 23% +75.9%
15% +17.9% 23% +58.9%
20% +6.3% 21% +43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +116% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +116% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +87% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,027 vs −$190 · ×10.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$6,019
Realized+$14,084
Unrealized+$455
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses9 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions10
Markets (closed)39 / 49
History coverage73d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1,782 $3,532 +$1,750 (+98%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,300 $1,246 −$54 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $250 $345 +$95 (+38%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $296 $288 −$8 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $250 $245 −$5 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $250 $219 −$31 (-12%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 16¢ 7¢ $300 $136 −$164 (-55%)
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $280 $5 −$275 (-98%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $656 $2 −$654 (-100%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $200 $1 −$199 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,000 +$1,341 +134%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $514 −$500 -97%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $420 −$411 -98%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $784 +$6,429 +820%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $998 +$2,917 +292%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $343 −$224 -65%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $151 −$147 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 −$57 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $206 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $159 −$155 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $338 −$330 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $271 −$265 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $582 +$4,674 +803%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $206 −$201 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $406 +$334 +82%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $253 −$246 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $109 −$33 -30%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $224 −$218 -97%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $267 −$42 -16%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $257 −$250 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $506 +$285 +56%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $334 +$153 +46%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $277 −$270 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $66 −$62 -94%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $267 −$250 -94%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $226 +$2,045 +905%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $177 +$68 +38%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 09 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $151 −$151 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,081 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 3¢ $288 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $308 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $123 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $159 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $84 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $320 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $123 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 10h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $514 11h
Spread: Japan (-4.5) SELL Japan 25¢ $4 11h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 90¢ $0 11h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 90¢ $3,470 11h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 90¢ $2,387 11h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 30¢ $150 11h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 30¢ $203 11h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 30¢ $32 11h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 30¢ $81 11h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 30¢ $205 11h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 30¢ $79 11h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 30¢ $2 11h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 30¢ $13 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,018.63 · official $6,018.63 (match) · 207 history records