Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
06 0x06f2…3ba4 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$17
world 48% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 25% -8.9%
≤30d 4 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 25% -8.9%
≤90d 4 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 25% -8.9%
all 4 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 25% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 25% -8.9%
10% -17.2% 25% -17.6%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $82 −$17 -20%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 17 $75 +$19 +25%
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? Jun 17 $86 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Modi out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Modi out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $64 1h
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 3h
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $42 3h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $78 4h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $38 4h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 4h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $94 22h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $37 24h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $38 24h
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $86 24h
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 25h
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records