Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
06 0x06f0…ad99 crypto 1299 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,805 (+5%) realized +$1,893 · open −$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%745W / 553L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days+$1,091
14 days+$1,091
30 days+$1,009
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$98
other 29% +$610
sports 13% +$836
world 3% −$77
politics 1% −$4
economics 0% −$20
tech 0% $0
weather 0% +$57
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +9.0% -1.4% 57% 57% +12.0%
≤30d 34 +0.5% -9.0% 53% 53% +8.0%
≤90d 1124 -2.2% -11.5% 58% 58% -5.4%
all 1298 -1.2% -10.6% 57% 56% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 56% -5.6%
10% -19.2% 55% -14.7%
15% -27.0% 51% -22.9%
20% -34.2% 31% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$20 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized+$1,893
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses745 / 553
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1298 / 1299
History coverage148d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 40¢ $393 $305 −$88 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $698 +$169 +24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $127 −$127 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $250 +$248 +99%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 −$19 -85%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $149 +$144 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $152 +$126 +83%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $151 +$146 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $796 +$452 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $74 +$112 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $37 +$56 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $34 +$39 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $124 +$111 +89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $155 +$68 +44%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $198 +$173 +88%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $23 −$13 -60%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $400 +$57 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $23 +$15 +64%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $67 +$76 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $174 +$191 +109%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $365 +$138 +38%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $19 +$24 +128%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13? May 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $614 +$450 +73%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $674 +$333 +50%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $27 −$27 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 11 $101 −$101 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 05 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 05 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $867 12m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $698 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $96 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $302 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $201 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $98 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $498 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $99 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $100 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $150 12h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $76 22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $294 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 25¢ $69 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $149 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $127 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $46 31h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $152 31h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $297 31h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $151 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,249 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $796 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $101 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $142 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $37 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $74 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $34 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $235 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $124 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $155 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.69 · official $304.69 (match) · 3341 history records