Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06ef…d47d crypto 1439 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (312 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%450W / 996L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day312.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (312 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 793 -0.6% -10.1% 40% 39% -10.2%
≤30d 1446 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 30% -10.5%
≤90d 1446 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 30% -10.5%
all 1446 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 30% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover312.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 30% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 30% -19.0%
15% -26.5% 29% -26.9%
20% -33.7% 28% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses450 / 996
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1446 / 1439
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day312.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 59¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 175 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.83 · official $1.68 (match) · 3500 history records