Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

06 0x06ee…66b5 sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,042 (+25%) realized +$2,052 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate52%12W / 11L

Whale WR83%big bets

Drawdown39%max

Avg bet$321per market

Trades / day5.7pace

Fees−$98est.

Kalshi-fit68%portable

Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$70

7 days+$2,177

14 days+$2,309

30 days+$2,309

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)+3.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+12.4%	+1.7%	52%	48%	+17.7%
≤30d	23	+14.5%	+3.6%	52%	48%	+17.5%
≤90d	23	+14.5%	+3.6%	52%	48%	+17.5%
all	23	+14.5%	+3.6%	52%	48%	+17.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.6%	48%	+17.5%
10%	-6.4%	48%	+6.3%
15%	-15.4%	48%	-4.0%
20%	-23.7%	43%	-13.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 83% (≥$508) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +19% → late +10% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$358 vs −$180 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$90

Realized+$2,052

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses12 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)83%

Est. fees paid−$98

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage7d

Avg bet$321

Trades / day5.7

Drawdown39%

Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$100	$90	−$10 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$1,013	+$411	+41%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$508	+$6	+1%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$427	−$420	-98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$204	−$200	-98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$28	−$27	-97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$310	+$300	+97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$203	−$200	-98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$103	−$55	-54%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$508	+$491	+97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$153	+$213	+139%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$507	+$436	+86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$102	+$131	+129%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$1,107	+$1,095	+99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$708	−$700	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$203	−$200	-99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$0	$0	-97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$51	+$183	+356%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$659	+$524	+80%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$330	+$340	+103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$306	−$32	-11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$198	+$164	+83%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$103	0m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	83¢	$1,424	3m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$1,013	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	47¢	$514	2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$508	2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	23¢	$102	3h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$325	5h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$204	25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	7¢	$28	25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$310	29h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$203	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	15¢	$44	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	6¢	$103	2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$999	2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$508	2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Austria vs. Jordan: Bot	BUY	23¢	$136	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$365	2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$153	3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$943	3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	54¢	$253	3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$254	3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	24¢	$51	4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$2,201	4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$1,107	4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	63¢	$708	4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$203	4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	44¢	$102	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	8¢	$0	5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	80¢	$234	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.00 · official $96.67 · 44 history records