Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06ed…6845 crypto 1137 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate80%912W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day65.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 252 +0.6% -9.0% 84% 33% -9.6%
≤30d 1136 -0.6% -10.0% 80% 36% -10.4%
≤90d 1136 -0.6% -10.0% 80% 36% -10.4%
all 1136 -0.6% -10.0% 80% 36% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 36% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 14% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 3% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses912 / 224
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1136 / 1137
History coverage21d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day65.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.08 · official $3.08 (match) · 2482 history records