Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

06
0x06ec…f845
other · 100 markets active 97d ago
0.0score
+$48,381 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$47,029 · open +$380
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$5,809
Realized+$47,029
Unrealized+$380
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses81 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)245 / 100
Avg bet$3,572
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 11 History 245 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,144
7 days−$5,144
14 days−$5,144
30 days−$5,144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 85¢ 94¢ $3,864 $4,293 +$429 (+11%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes 58¢ 51¢ $599 $529 −$70 (-12%)
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? No 65¢ 100¢ $196 $300 +$104 (+53%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? No 8¢ 100¢ $22 $274 +$253 (+1161%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $109 $117 +$8 (+7%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 97¢ 90¢ $78 $72 −$6 (-7%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $9 $24 +$15 (+165%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 87¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 29¢ 48¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+62%)
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? No 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin shake hands on Friday? No 3¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will JD Vance say "Tax" 7+ times during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28? No 14¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $270 $0 −$270 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Kyiv" during conference with Putin on August 15? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be less than 1.0%? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? Jun 12 $22 +$253 +1161%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 12 $8 +$97 +1222%
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $2 +$23 +987%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $120 −$17 -14%
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin shake hands on Friday? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Tax" 7+ times during remarks in Wisconsin on August Jun 12 $105 −$95 -90%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30? Jun 12 $170 −$170 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jun 12 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Trump say "Kyiv" during conference with Putin on August 15? Jun 12 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be less than 1.0%? Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 31? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Shit" this week? (August 25 - 31) Jun 12 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in August? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wells Fargo (WFC) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon apologize to Trump before August? Jun 12 $201 −$189 -94%
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? Jun 12 $560 −$560 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35–40 million views on day 1? Jun 12 $24 +$40 +168%
Will Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%? Jun 12 $0 +$642 +278513%
Will Trump say "Cynthia" or "Lummis" during the crypto bill signing ce Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on Jul Jun 12 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025? Jun 12 $313 −$313 -100%
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? Jun 12 $285 −$379 -133%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Zelensky events on August 18? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Jun 12 $0 −$450 -706531%
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025? Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Surprise" during his next video? Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Energy and Jun 12 $31 +$2 +8%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" in October? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -38%
Missing Epstein cell footage released before August? Jun 12 $16 −$13 -82%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in August? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump's UN speech be longer than 45 minutes? Jun 12 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 12 $17 +$78 +466%
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during Fox & Friends appea Jun 12 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Trump say "Jeffrey Epstein" in October? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during events with PM of Cana Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31? Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Tea App removed from App Store by August 31? Jun 12 $294 −$225 -76%
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by August 31? Jun 12 $210 −$210 -100%
Will iPhone 17 cost $2,000 or more? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% +$2,732
politics 38% +$17,805
tech 12% +$13,600
economics 5% +$22,079
world 2% −$7,279
crypto 2% +$2,383
culture 0% +$1,232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 97d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 98d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 98d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 98d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 99d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 99d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 99d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 99d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 99d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 99d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 99d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 100d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 100d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 100d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 100d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 101d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 101d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 101d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 101d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 101d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 101d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 101d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 101d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 102d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 102d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 103d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 103d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 103d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 103d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 +61.5% +46.1% 16% 15% -68.1%
≤30d 148 +61.5% +46.1% 16% 15% -68.1%
≤90d 148 +61.5% +46.1% 16% 15% -68.1%
all 245 +64.0% +48.4% 33% 22% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +48.4% 22% -2.2%
10% +34.2% 19% -11.5%
15% ← realistic here +21.2% 18% -20.1%
20% +9.3% 17% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,808.96 · official $5,808.79 (match) · 3500 history records