Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06df…f0ad crypto 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%75W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$7
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.6% -11.0% 81% 27% -15.3%
≤30d 105 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 50% -12.1%
≤90d 105 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 50% -12.1%
all 105 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 50% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 50% -12.1%
10% -19.9% 32% -20.5%
15% -27.6% 25% -28.2%
20% -34.7% 17% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses75 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage12d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$4 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.18 · official $3.18 (match) · 183 history records